CEOs say AI hasn't moved the needle on jobs or productivity

The cold numbers

It has been reported that a new paper drawing on surveys of roughly 6,000 executives across the U.S., U.K., Germany and Australia found the vast majority see little to no impact from AI on employment or productivity over the past three years. Two-thirds of executives said they use AI, but usage averaged only about 1.5 hours per week; 25% reported no workplace use at all. It has also been reported that almost 90% of firms told researchers AI had not changed employment or productivity, even as companies continue to spend — reportedly more than $250 billion in 2024 — and hundreds of S&P 500 firms name‑checked AI on earnings calls.

Why the disconnect?

Sound familiar? It echoes Solow’s old quip: “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” Economists are asking the same question again. Some studies are bullish — MIT researchers once claimed big productivity lifts for AI users — and others are more measured: a 2024 MIT analysis put long‑run gains at around 0.5% over a decade, while the St. Louis Fed spotted roughly 1.9% excess cumulative growth since late‑2022. It has been reported that Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok summed it up bluntly: “AI is everywhere except in the incoming macroeconomic data.” So which is it? Hype, promise, or slow burn?

What comes next?

Firms still expect modest near‑term boosts — executives forecast a 1.4% productivity rise and a small output gain over three years — so the story isn’t over. But the emotional moment here is one of anticlimax: trillions in hype, billions in capex, and yet no big labor market shock or productivity punchline. Will AI turn into the productivity miracle everyone promised, or another chapter in Solow’s paradox? For now, the answer looks less like a headline and more like a patient footnote — adoption depth, task redesign, and complementary skills will probably decide whether the payoff ever arrives.

Sources: fortune.com, Hacker News