The RAM shortage could last years — and your next phone might feel it

The short version

It has been reported that memory makers will only meet about 60 percent of DRAM demand by the end of 2027. Ouch. The big three — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — are expanding, but most new capacity won’t be online until 2027 or 2028. SK did open a fab in Cheongju in February, but that’s the lone production bump slated for 2026.

Production vs. demand: a widening gap

Nikkei Asia says production needs to rise roughly 12 percent annually in 2026 and 2027 to close the gap. Counterpoint Research, however, says planned increases are closer to 7.5 percent. It has been reported that those numbers leave a sizable shortfall. And yes, an SK Group chairman allegedly warned shortages could stretch to 2030 — a prospect that would keep prices elevated for a long time.

Who’s prioritized — and who gets left behind

Most of the new fabs will churn out high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI data centers. That’s understandable; GPUs and AI racks are ravenous. But it’s also the rub: HBM doesn’t directly relieve the DRAM crunch that powers phones, laptops, VR headsets, and gaming handhelds. So while data centers get fuel for the AI gold rush, everyday devices could keep feeling the pinch. Translation: device makers may keep passing costs to consumers.

Bottom line

If you’ve been holding off that laptop or phone upgrade, this is a hard pill to swallow. Short-term pain looks likely to spill into the back half of this decade — maybe longer. Want cheaper gadgets? Then wishful thinking won’t cut it; we’ll need faster fab builds, a shift in production priorities, or a demand cooldown. None of those are guaranteed.

Sources: theverge.com, Hacker News