AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

An essay published on thenextwavefutures argues that AI might not be the triumphant crest of the digital era — it could be its curfew. It has been reported that the piece leans on Carlota Perez’s techno‑economic paradigm framework to suggest that the current AI boom may mark a late‑cycle, rent‑seeking phase rather than the start of a fresh growth wave. Bold claim. Scary, even. But also worth asking: what happens if the shiny new thing is actually the last big thing?

The argument in brief

It has been reported that the author points to several structural signs: concentration of power in a few cloud‑compute giants, ballooning energy and hardware costs, shrinking marginal productivity gains, and growing political and social backlash. Allegedly, those factors could create a plateau — not the broad, infrastructure‑renewing deployment that characterized earlier waves (think electrification, mass auto, the internet, mobile). Instead of catalyzing a new regime of mass consumption and innovation, AI might ossify incumbents and siphon economic returns into a narrow stratum of platforms and investors.

Why it matters

If true, this isn’t just an academic debate. It changes how policymakers, investors, and engineers should act. More public infrastructure? Stronger antitrust and industrial policy? Different bets for startups that can’t out‑spend hyperscalers on training runs? The emotional core here is clear: hope for transformative progress versus fear of a stalled future. Either we course‑correct, or we watch a wave retire while the music still plays — a sober, modern echo of the dot‑com hangover. Which would you rather bet on: a sunset or a reset?

Sources: thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com, Hacker News