Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets

New accounts, big wins

It has been reported that a cluster of newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made sharply timed "yes" bets on a US–Iran ceasefire and walked away with hundreds of thousands of dollars. Blockchain analysis published via the crypto analytics site Dune showed at least 50 wallets placing substantial wagers before Donald Trump posted about a ceasefire on Truth Social at about 6:30pm ET. One wallet created around 10am on the day of the announcement allegedly placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8¢ and later cashed out for an estimated $200,000 profit; another joined on 6 April and reportedly netted $125,500; a third, created 12 minutes before Trump’s post, put in $31,908 at 33.7¢ and is estimated to have earned about $48,500. Polymarket has labeled the ceasefire contract “disputed,” and payouts may be delayed while the outcome is resolved — a process that could take about 48 hours. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.

How it may have happened

Public blockchain records show the timing and amounts, but they cannot reveal who controlled the wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart-contract wallets, meaning a single person can spin up many accounts; only the company’s internal records would definitively show whether these were new users or repeat players. It has been reported that patterns of newly created accounts profiting from last‑minute events are not new on the platform — similar clusters allegedly made large gains ahead of January’s dramatic events in Venezuela and in past Iran-related incidents. Were these trades savvy reading of public signals? Pure luck? Or something darker — insider information? Questions hang in the air.

Why regulators are watching

The optics are uncomfortable: big money made minutes or hours before a headline that changes markets and lives. Bipartisan members of Congress have already introduced measures to expand the legal definition of insider trading to cover prediction markets, and even major platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have said the space may need clearer rules. Will lawmakers and platforms move faster than traders can spin up new wallets? For now, the wins are concrete, the links are circumstantial, and the uneasy feeling remains — making money while a ceasefire is declared. Which, if nothing else, makes for a stark reminder: markets move fast. Policy moves slower.

Sources: theguardian.com, Hacker News