Has electricity decoupled from gas prices in Germany?

What does "decoupled" even mean?

Decoupling is simple in concept and messy in practice. In a gas-dominated market the marginal generator — usually a combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) — sets the day-ahead price, so electricity and gas move hand in glove. Decoupling happens when enough near-zero-marginal-cost wind and solar push those gas plants off the margin often enough that the annual average power price no longer tracks gas. Big milestone if true. A symbolic turning point for the energy transition — but also a fox in the henhouse for anyone who likes tidy metrics.

How the test works

It has been reported that the study treats a modern CCGT at roughly 55% efficiency as consuming about 1.8 MWh of gas to make 1 MWh of electricity and emitting roughly 0.35 tonnes CO₂ per MWh; allegedly, the EU ETS cost on those emissions is then added to get the gas-implied short‑run marginal cost. The rule of thumb here: if observed electricity prices trade more than 20% below that gas-implied level for the year, the year is flagged as "decoupled." The site flips to YES when the current or most recent completed year clears that 20% gap — a pragmatic threshold that admits gas doesn't need to vanish entirely.

Sources and what they actually looked at

It has been reported that the analysis uses EPEX Spot day‑ahead prices (DE‑LU, volume-weighted annual averages) from Fraunhofer ISE, TTF gas annual averages from ICE/IEA, and EU ETS price data from EEX auction settlements. So this isn't guesswork; it's a data-driven metric you can reproduce — with caveats. Want a live verdict? The webpage tracks the gap and updates as market data arrives. Handy. Slightly nerdy. Exactly what market wonks crave.

Limitations and why it matters

There are important caveats. Electricity averages are volume‑weighted by auction trading volume — low‑price hours can carry extra weight — and TTF/CO₂ inputs are calendar‑year front‑month approximations. In short: methodology choices move the needle. Still, the question itself matters beyond semantics. If renewables are indeed cutting gas out of the price-setting role, consumers could see a new regime of price behaviour and policy makers will squint at market design. Is this the end of gas’s pricing dominance — or the start of a new, messier chapter? The debate is now data, not just rhetoric.

Sources: strommarktberatung.de, Hacker News